Post by QwertyuiopThePie on May 19, 2011 13:38:50 GMT
True, but which one? We know Veers is active elsewhere and I have seen him post here, and Elmach is active (on the forum, at least). Did he just forget, maybe?
...The vigilante hasn't used it's night role yet...
I would like to point out that you have no way of knowing this. Remember that the Vigilante and the Mafia may or may not accidentally try to kill the same person.
"Don't take life too seriously. You'll never get out alive." Joined: Mar 15, 2009
Post by Fringe Pioneer on May 19, 2011 16:19:56 GMT
Actually, I was wondering if "reduced posting" would be key to longevity. If you don't post, how can the Mafia or the Civilians or the Vigilante learn anything about you, and if they don't know anything about you, how can they have any evidence for lynching you or "snuffing you out" at night?
...and so, instead of participating in discussions, I have been looking around. I was too late for the doctor, and I learned who is most definitely a civilian, but I think I might know who is guilty (and since the pariah is dead, actively guilty).
I haven't looked at Vaconcovat yet, but afterwards, I suggest we get Temporarily9. I would ask that, if he turns out to be guilty as I believe, that I not be lynched, but I'll be killed anyways. Think of it this way:
If I'm just a civilian, I'm probably trying to "play hero" to prevent important innocents from being killed. I would have no idea whether Temporarily9 is innocent or not, and my deviating from the norm would be a bad idea.
If I'm a cop, then Temporarily9 is someone I researched beforehand and must be right about, and will almost as surely by killed by the remaining Mafia the night afterwards regardless of whether my choice is picked or not, and regardless of whether anyone else trusts me. Are there really any other alternatives if I'm a cop?
If I'm a rogue cop, then QwertyuiopThePie is most certainly innocent, the remaining Mafia might thank me for my service, and then immediately kill me off before I start killing them off. Killing other innocents would be political suicide, as it brings myself closer to destruction.
If I'm a Vigilante, than I'm just going after the Mafia, without quite knowing who is and who isn't. It would be wiser for me to continue not to converse, as then I could continue my hit-and-miss game without having any real targets on me.
If I'm Mafia, then Temporarily9 is most certainly not Mafia and I'll likely by lynched afterwards, if not earlier.
If I am Mafia and Temporarily9 is also Mafia, then I just committed political suicide and will most certainly be killed off in the night to prevent the remaining Mafia from being spotted, if not lynched for being Mafia.
Really, if I had any special role, I would most certainly be killed in the next two game days, and the benefits of playing rogue cop or rogue Mafia aren't really high enough unless the benefit is "ruin the game," but even then I would be killed off by someone quickly and I wouldn't be able to note my benefits.
Post Script: Wouldn't it be interesting if GGoodie had Temporarily9, the evil nonja leader, the label of Mafia Boss, and me, the Imperial do-gooder, the label of Cop?
Post Post Script: What would it be like if we had a Borderline Science theme?
Post by QwertyuiopThePie on May 19, 2011 22:42:35 GMT
Hmm, but wouldn't that reasoning just mean that you yourself would be under suspicion? There is no reason to suspect me, and if we were both mafia it could easily be a plan rather than a political suicide move. I'm still staying neutral, I'd hate to beat another innocent to death.
Intense. It seems like bad things can happen in this game if you over think things. This being my first-and hopefully not last-Mafia game, I'm just observing to see how I should post, and when it's a good time to vote. But I'm going to agree with everyone so far, Vacon seems sketchy. Now I shall sit in my chair, and rock myself to sleep.
The death of Dracario left everyone confounded. No one knew what to do next. However, the peace was short-lived. Elmach quickly broke through the silence with an accusation of Vaconcovat. General Veers demanded proof, but Anon5 quickly joined in. Vaconcovat tried to defend himself, but soon many others began spouting accusations at him. With their encouragement, Anon5 grabbed Vaconcovat while Elmach began to deliver devastating blows to his face and torso. They demanded he confess, but he continued to plead innocent. Finally, one last blow to Vacon's face broke his nose and jammed it into his brain. He immediately became limp in Anon5's arms. They searched him, but his pockets and bags were empty except for clothes and toiletrees. Vaconcovat was a Civilian
And thus begins... Night 3 3 days remaining. 7 Remaining Players: 1 Cop, 2 Civilians, 1 Vigilante, 2 Henchmen, 1 Mafia Boss.
Night ends at 12:30 AM GMT, 24 hours from now.
Night Roles, send me your PM's! Remember there is no posting during night!
Everyone wakes up. The mood this morning is somber and serious. Only two days remain. A quick head count shows that unlike the previous mornings, two people are missing. This is not good. No one has to look far to find them. The two bodies are found in the basement, right next to each other. A knife lies in the chest of one. Another knife sprouts from the kidney region of the other, next to several stab wounds. No one knows what to think. Then, a booming voice breaks the silence through the intercom, "One of my underlings appears to have been killed. I congragulate the Vigilante in being able to put us through this much. However, no one is a match for the Mafia." The voice cuts out. It is now clear. The Mafia had attempted to stab the Vigilante in the basement, but before he went down he took a Mafia with him. The group is relieved to know that it was the Vigilante and a Mafia that were killed, not any Innocents. A new optimism seems to emerge as they go upstairs to begin their discussion. As the head up the stairs, they take one look back at the lifeless bodies of Qwerty and Wheatley. Wheatley was a Henchmen Qwerty was the Vigilante
And thus begins... Day 4 2 days remaining. 3 votes to hammer. 3 votes to extend. 3 votes to shorten. 5 Remaining Players: 1 Cop, 2 Civilians, 1 Henchmen, 1 Mafia Boss.
Day ends at 12:30 AM GMT, 48 hours from now.
"Don't take life too seriously. You'll never get out alive." Joined: Mar 15, 2009
Post by Fringe Pioneer on May 21, 2011 1:36:15 GMT
Well, it seems there are more innocents than there are guilty parties.
From either non-special innocent's perspective, there are four people, two of which are innocent, and two of which are guilty.
From the cop's perspective, there are four people, two of which are innocent, and two of which are guilty; however, when investigated, three of them will appear innocent, and only one will appear guilty.
From the henchman's perspective, there is his boss and three innocents.
From the boss's perspective, there is his henchman and three innocents.
If we somehow vote off only innocents, it will only take the Mafia two lynchings and one night to get rid of us. In the best case scenario, it will take two lynchings and one innocent life will be lost in the night. So, either way, it seems we have at least two days to go...
Veers, the Mafia automatically win if their numbers ever equal the number of innocents. (Since they would be able to cancel out lynching votes while still killing at night)
"Don't take life too seriously. You'll never get out alive." Joined: Mar 15, 2009
Therefor, for the Innocents to win, a mafia has to be lynched today. (If an innocent was lynched, they would automatically win, and if no one was lynched they would kill tonight and then automatically win)
"Don't take life too seriously. You'll never get out alive." Joined: Mar 15, 2009
Post by Fringe Pioneer on May 21, 2011 18:28:44 GMT
Vertigo Æzerog Mervœs (Elmach) Avenger AnonymousPerson5 General Veers
Assuming an innocent person's perspective where he can eliminate himself from the list automatically, there is a 50% chance of getting the right person. That's not too bad. If I trust Vertigo and Vertigo trusts me, that takes an innocent off the list (presumably) and brings the chances of getting the correct person (presumably) to 2/3. If one of us is guilty and we still trust each other, then the chance actually goes down to 1/3 from the innocent person's perspective.
Well, then. From my perspective, there are Elmach, Avenger, and AnonymousPerson5...
Post by Fringe Pioneer on May 22, 2011 3:28:52 GMT
According to GGoodie's latest statistical post, there are two civilians, a cop, a Mafia henchman, and a Mafia boss.
We have come to the point where the Cop is ineffective: the result of his investigation wouldn't come until after people lynched someone, and if that someone is innocent, the game is lost. You can read my previous post for the probabilities of getting a Mafia member as opposed to an innocent person...
According to GGoodie's latest statistical post, there are two civilians, a cop, a Mafia henchman, and a Mafia boss.
We have come to the point where the Cop is ineffective: the result of his investigation wouldn't come until after people lynched someone, and if that someone is innocent, the game is lost. You can read my previous post for the probabilities of getting a Mafia member as opposed to an innocent person...
So we are at LyLo...
I say we do a role reveal. The Cop can be treated as an ordinary civilian now, and we might be able to find the mafia.
Post by Fringe Pioneer on May 22, 2011 6:42:25 GMT
The problem with the role reveal is that the Mafia can reveal themselves to be innocents: really, the only one who could reveal himself and be trusted is the cop, if he makes a prediction...
...which I did earlier with having investigated Temporarily9 and marking him as guilty before he was actually discovered to be the vigilante.
Post by Anonymousperson5 on May 22, 2011 15:12:04 GMT
Herp derp. It's only a matter of time until someone gets lynched and then we will DIE. Herp derp. It would have been better if qwerty was still with us. Then he could've killed some Mafia. Ah well. So, Avenger, Elmach, me, Vert, and GV. Hmmm. I suppose the alliance between GV and Vert is supicious. But I don't know! I CAN'T KNOW! *blub blub*