You're voting to lynch me merely because I'm playing, aren't you?
Anyway, there are 12 people, 9 of which are innocent, 1 of which is insane, and 2 of which are molten. Quite frankly, the chances of successfully lynching a guilty player is a bit too low to risk. The small number of games prevents a good analysis, but there seems to be a correlation between early lynchings and Magma victories. In the one game that the first lynch was stalled, the Magma players were defeated. Maybe the refusal to lynch on the first day and the defeat of Magma are unrelated events, but I think it's still worth trying.
If nothing else, the Magma spies and vigilante are likely to kill, and when that happens, there will be a 3/10 (30%) chance of lynching a killer instead of a 3/12 (25%) chance. It would be funny if none of the killers decided to kill tonight, thereby eventually forcing a blind lynch with the worst possibilities of 25%.
Here's something else noteworthy: there is a 1/6 chance of lynching a Magma spy and a 1/12 chance of lynching the Vigilante. To take down the potential nocturnal killings from 2 to 1, either both spies would have to be lynched or killed, or the Vigilante alone would have to be lynched or killed.
The chance of lynching a spy now is 1/6.
Assuming he is lynched, then with 11 players remaining, the chance that the other spy is killed is 1/11 at night by the Vigilante's hand.
Assuming the first of the spies is lynched, but not killed at night, then with 10 players remaining, the chance that the other spy is lynched is 1/10.
Just as the chance of rolling a six on one die is 1/6 whereas the chance of rolling a six on two dice is (1/6)*(1/6) = 1/36, so the chance of killing both spies ASAP is (1/6)*(1/10) = 1/60 or (1/6)*(1/11) = 1/66. One of 60 is not a very good chance of making sure one less innocent is killed per night.
The chance of lynching a vigilante now is 1/6. That's it: killing him means one less innocent gets killed per night.
To reduce the number of civilian deaths, we could either go 1/60 (best of the two chances for killing spies), or we could go 1/6. The probability of killing the vigilante is ten times more likely than killing both spies.
It's a shame that we can't tell who's a spy and who's the Vigilante, but if we do somehow determine who is who, the priority should be set on killing the Vigilante.
You have to be kidding. We have long since established that random lynching with a 1/12 chance is retarded. If we kill an innocent (which there is a 3/4 chance of) then we essentially make three people die on the first day instead of two. That is not good. We want as many people alive for as long as possible.
Gah, why are you people randomvoting for Kurai? You know how that's worked in the past. I vote Mono just to hope we can even it out. We just need two more votes for him to ensure survival.
I'm also voting to extend the day. Need more time to stop a random from dying.
YOU FOOLS! You don't bandwagon on a random vote stage day... In fact, you have to ask questions during RVS... You want to each individually pick someone out, and these bandwagonings are very suspicious. Now I have no suspicion of Monokrome, But I'm evening out the score here. And guys, don'tshorten the day! That's incredibly stupid if you're town, as it means the discussion is shortened, and less information is gathered! I vote to extend , in fact.
Anyway, Nmagane Is there any reason you're bandwagoning Kurai AND shortening the day without even bothering to get any reasons?
Poison glove, slowly robbing you of your health in a hail of poisonous punches.
ObG all you did the first day was kill an innocent person because you tried to single them out. I also Vote Monokrome, but I still want the day to be shortened. Everyone knows no real info is gathered in the thread on the first day.
"Don't take life too seriously. You'll never get out alive." Joined: Mar 15, 2009
"Everyone knows" Everyone totally knows that the current system of quickhammering everyone works, I mean we only had three or four mafia victories but hey we had one!
Also Nmagane, it doesn't matter how you define it, it's still bandwagoning. If yo actually ntry and look up from your ignorance, yo'll see that trying to get information actually works!
The Crazy Mafia Mystery Extravaganza was a mistake day 1. I focused on Kurai too much, and I didn't get real info. nyway, I didn't lynch him beaus I was trying to single him out, he said himself that he was purposefully acting lik mafia because he didn't like the game. When such unwillignness to play comes into the equation, well, things get funky. ALso, that was one time, one time. Compared to bandwagoning... well, see the next paragraph.
ALso, everyone knows that the bandwagoning has never worked. doesn't work, and will never work. We have only, in the history of four games done with bandwagoning, only lynched one mafioso with bandwagoning, and none on Day 1. The onyl game town has won was conducted using evidence and logic, not bandwagoning. all the games where bandwagoning has been used, the mafia have won!
Bandwagoning is not the way to do it. Oh, and did I mention, on the other forum I once linked too, we lynched a mafia in day 1 because of good info gatheing, although considering we're all mafia noobs here, I don't ex[ect that. What I DO expect is for you to shape up! Use logic! Get info from people. Bandwagoning doesn't work.
And Nmagane, don't think I'm easing up on you. I want a real answer. And since my vote appears that it will nt stop the bandwagon, I'm pressure voting you, Nmagane. I want anwers, real answers, and I am pressing you until we get them.
Also, don't shorten. Shortening almost always helps the guilty parties because it allows them to delay us getting information, allows mafia and vigilante secure an enemy lynch, allowing them to take two-three soyurces of info out in oen day/night, and allows them to prevent us getting useful informtion until a later date. DON'T SHORTEN IF YOU WANT TOWN TO WIN. "Boring" is what you get when you bandwagon. "Fun" is what you get when you put real effort in.
So do it.
Poison glove, slowly robbing you of your health in a hail of poisonous punches.
Post by Anonymousperson5 on Jun 7, 2011 22:53:51 GMT
Gahgahgahg. I'm going to have quite a time totaling this. Just give me about 5 hours minutes to get thigs straightened out...
Shorten: 4 (Ggoodie, Nmagane, The Guilty Party, and Monokr0me) Lengthen: 2 (Temporarily9 and Owned by Glove)
Ostracons:
1. Kuraikiba: 4 (Elmach, Monokr0me, Mario & Luigi, and The Guilty Party) 1. Monokr0me: 4 (Temporarily9, Kuraikiba, Ggoodie, and Owned by Glove) 2. General Veers: 1 (Nmagane) Totaled. No one is currently in the lead.
I'll take note now: Shortening/Lengthening the day requires half the people, and does so in increments of 4 hours.
Edit: *facepalm* I just realized I would be gone at the time I set for it to be shortened. Night 1 will be posted 2 hours early if the day is shortened once.