Well, I received my role from Zrined, so now I can play. For those of you who enjoy falling for the Gambler's Fallacy, I was a police officer, a mafioso, and host of MAFIA 6: A Fun, Interesting Adventure 6, the first Mafia game on this forum where the citizens won and when the doctor finally saved someone. Okay, so the last role is actually just me bragging, and I won't apologize for that.
So, GGoodie, Alonso, AlchimistFaust, and SRMaster all accuse Alonso of being a mafioso. I haven't made a choice, so I can either join the bandwagon, vote for someone else, or refrain from voting altogether. Statistically speaking, I believe joining the bandwagon might be the best move regardless of my role since joining bandwagons doesn't tend to say anything about the role. In that case, I'll vote for Alonso.
There's a 1/4 chance now that any given player is a mafioso. Assuming we don't have suicides or any other extraordinary events, we can either end up lynching an innocent and losing another innocent, lynching an innocent and having a mafioso betray his coworker, lynching an innocent without losing anyone, lynching a mafioso and losing an innocent, lynching a mafioso and losing no one, lynching no one and losing an innocent, lynching no one and having a mafioso betray his coworker, or lynching no one and losing no one. The probabilities of a player being a mafioso the next day will be 1/3, 1/6, 2/7, 1/6, 1/7, 2/7, 1/7, and 2/8 respectively. In order of increasing likelihood of killing a mafioso the next day:
Lynch a mafioso and lose no one in the night. / Lynch no one and have the Mafia betray itself.
Lynch an innocent and have the Mafia betray itself. / Lynch a mafioso and lose an innocent in the night.
No one dies
Lynch an innocent and lose no one in the night. / Lynch no one and lose an innocent in the night.
Lynch an innocent and lose an innocent in the night.
It would appear that lynching an innocent will make finding the Mafia more likely, but then managing to lynch a mafioso makes finding the other one a game win. Interpret these probabilities as you will...
:DAgh, I can't change colours on my iPod, just I vote for alonso and suspicion is sr, as he readily accuses me, before he understands my reason. Goodbye cruel world, I have a felling I will die, but after the games ends, I will write a confession of what transpired today.
shkidscensor Not That while this isn't my real age, it is my birthday. the guild of DIPRIP Aliases, shkidsbeta, shkids, shkidsceta (only in realm of the mad god) bckids ( random places) sorry I like realm of the mad god. Please buy a ticket at the Memzakian lottery, the tickets cost 35 DBs each, prizes are great. Link here: Memzakian Lottery! Play it or beware the wrath oryx
I was going to say that we should probably slow down but then I realized that the only reason this is going so fast is because Alonso is just sort of rolling around in the mud instead of actually defending himself. He has a 3/4 chance of being Town, but since that probability is shared by everyone he seems to be the best candidate for the random lynch.
Actually, we shall do what was done in other Mafias, you may vote to shorten the day, if a majority votes and the status of lynching does not change Alonso will be lynched.
Can't I make it go faster, if I wanted to defend myself frankly, I wouldn't even start by accusing myself, but yeah, I was always gonna die, I die prematurely, assisted suicide with an ukterior motive. But heed my suspicion on srmaster.
ALSo, who chooses how I die because I want to be the one who decides how I myself will die.
shkidscensor Not That while this isn't my real age, it is my birthday. the guild of DIPRIP Aliases, shkidsbeta, shkids, shkidsceta (only in realm of the mad god) bckids ( random places) sorry I like realm of the mad god. Please buy a ticket at the Memzakian lottery, the tickets cost 35 DBs each, prizes are great. Link here: Memzakian Lottery! Play it or beware the wrath oryx
Vote hammer, goodbye creel world:) and good luck mafioso, do not le my sacrifice be on vain.
shkidscensor Not That while this isn't my real age, it is my birthday. the guild of DIPRIP Aliases, shkidsbeta, shkids, shkidsceta (only in realm of the mad god) bckids ( random places) sorry I like realm of the mad god. Please buy a ticket at the Memzakian lottery, the tickets cost 35 DBs each, prizes are great. Link here: Memzakian Lottery! Play it or beware the wrath oryx
As the discussion wore on, Shkids decide to accuse himself to prove his innocence, and no one bought it. As more and more people accused him, the pressure eventually became too great, and Shkids slipped away to the top floor, shoved a piece of asparagus down his throat, choking himself, and jumped. His last words? "Beware SR Master..."
Shkids has committed Suicide. He was a Citizen.
35hrs of Daylight Remaing
3/8 Votes to Shorten the Day to end at 12:00 a.m EST Tonight.
Dang, I missed a lot. Now, I'm quite suspicious of SR Master Not because of the suicide thing (people need to STOP doing that, as it makes more kills for the mafia), but because as soon as someone made a single post, he was immediately sure that his previous suspicions were cleaaarly not the mafia and he was SUPER SURE! Sounds like he's one of the mafia and they just arranged for him to vote to try to draw away suspicion from them being a team, and as soon as anyone made a post to the contrary, they'd rescind and be mafiabuddies in earnest.
Poison glove, slowly robbing you of your health in a hail of poisonous punches.
Claiming suspicion, Owned, is marked by blue. Red is for a definite vote
Look, Alonso did what I thought he would do. Independent of what he (Alonso) was, SR indeed shifted the focus to make pressure on him, simply agreeing with my non-based point of view. That puts my suspicions on him (SR Master), and I drop my suspicions of Veers.
Using ObG's line of thought, toagree that the mafia is actually organised as he says, would require ACTUAL ACTIVITY by them, or else, they're simply making themselves more vulnerable. Or hiding through the obvious.
Either way, they would be sticking themselves to a very strict situation of "it is" or "it isn't". It would take only time to figure out what is their plan.
So, I'd say that while, indeed, SR is very suspicious as of now, his strategy isn't organized. Or, perhaps, while not every player manifested himself, maybe the mafia is composed solely of people who are active in this thread.
Last Edit: Jul 4, 2012 22:47:19 GMT by AlchmistFaust
"What a man knows not, he to use requires, And what he knows, he cannot use for good. "
I AM voting for SR Master. Just to clarify. And what do you mean it would require actual activity? They don't need to announce that they're mafia, or stage a Vertigo group coup to be mafia. they'll try to deflect suspicion from themselves, and that might mean not taking "ACTUAL ACTIVITY".
Poison glove, slowly robbing you of your health in a hail of poisonous punches.
By activity I mean simply posting in this thread. Some people aren't even checking the thread, or posting in the forum at all, which makes myself doubt as to their planning. So, unless all the mafia are people that posted here and are active, they might not have planned and SR is simply hiding his role as mafia in a very dubious way, while other mafias are simply not active. But then again, I might be wrong, and they are hiding through the very obvious.
"What a man knows not, he to use requires, And what he knows, he cannot use for good. "
Just because people don't lurk doesn't mean they're not mafia, as many mafia don't like to lurk. Read the old mafia threads. Vertigo was quite active when he was mafia. He also was kind of ridiculous.
Poison glove, slowly robbing you of your health in a hail of poisonous punches.
Is there a problem with not knowing what someone is "planning"? You're assuming lurkers have plans. By plans I mean suspicious intents. Do as you wish, then...
After Alonso jumped, many chose not to become suspicious of others, but one took Alonso's last words to heart.
As everyone was getting up to go back to sleep, Glove lunged himself at Hachi and started to beat him, as everyone gasped in horror at the sight, when it was finished, Glove pulled out from his pockets a switchblade and a ring from his Family.
SR Master has been lynched. He was a Mafioso.
Night 1
Night roles, (Detective, Mafia, Doctor.) send me your respective actions